Do Gilt In Addition To Fossil Oil Cointegrate?

I produce got written extensively hither nearly cointegration betwixt gold-miners in addition to aureate ETF's (GDX vs GLD), every bit good every bit betwixt unloose energy companies in addition to stone oil ETF's (XLE vs USO). (See, for e.g., this article, or this article.) On or hence other occasion, I besides commented on an Economist periodical article nearly the possible cointegration betwixt bond yield in addition to stone oil prices. However, my immature human blogger here) is over fourteen months. Therefore, it may postulate historical information dorsum to the 1970's to convince ourselves of their cointegration. (My ain information on unsmooth stone oil in addition to aureate prices solely acquire every bit far dorsum every bit the 1990's. If whatever reader knows of historical information beginning that goes dorsum further, delight allow me know.) If, however, i is willing to accept their cointegration past times religious belief despite the inadequate data, in addition to hence i may believe that aureate is currently (as of February 12, 2007) only slightly undervalued relative to stone oil (the spread is nearly $8). I sure don't recommend entering into a lay on either side at this point!